Olimpia Zambrów 1–4 Legia Warszawa II

Olimpia Zambrów

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Legia Warszawa II

8/5/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów33%

×Draw23%

Legia Warszawa II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ZambrówExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.75

Olimpia Zambrów

1.48

Legia Warszawa II

1.75

Legia Warszawa II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

1.64

creates per match

1.77

1.74

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.64

Legia Warszawa II

1.77

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.74

Legia Warszawa II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Legia Warszawa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw

56%

Olimpia Zambrów or Legia Warszawa II

77%

Draw or Legia Warszawa II

67%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

15%

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

77%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

43%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

19%

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

83%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

52%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

43%

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

33%

level

23%

Legia Warszawa II scores more

44%

Legia Warszawa II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff