Legia Warszawa II 2–0 Olimpia Zambrów

Legia Warszawa II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia Zambrów

11/25/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Legia Warszawa II56%

×Draw22%

Olimpia Zambrów22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa IIExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Zambrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.19

Legia Warszawa II

2.00

Olimpia Zambrów

1.19

Legia Warszawa II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 49 away

2.40

creates per match

1.14

1.24

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II

2.40

Olimpia Zambrów

1.14

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II

1.24

Olimpia Zambrów

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw

78%

Legia Warszawa II or Olimpia Zambrów

78%

Draw or Olimpia Zambrów

44%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

33%

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

86%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

59%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

32%

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

70%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

33%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

71%

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.00

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more

56%

level

22%

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

22%

Legia Warszawa II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff