Olimpia Zambrów 2–2 Bełchatów: Result & Stats

Olimpia Zambrów

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bełchatów

6/1/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów44%

×Draw23%

Bełchatów34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ZambrówExpected goals in this matchBełchatów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.56

Olimpia Zambrów

1.81

Bełchatów

1.56

Olimpia Zambrów creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

1.64

creates per match

1.37

1.74

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.64

Bełchatów

1.37

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.74

Bełchatów

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Bełchatów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw

66%

Olimpia Zambrów or Bełchatów

77%

Draw or Bełchatów

56%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

23%

Bełchatów wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

84%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

54%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

27%

Bełchatów 1+ goals

79%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

46%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

57%

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.81

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

44%

level

23%

Bełchatów scores more

34%

Olimpia Zambrów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff