Bełchatów 3–0 Olimpia Zambrów: Result & Stats

Bełchatów

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Olimpia Zambrów

11/12/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bełchatów47%

×Draw24%

Olimpia Zambrów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BełchatówExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Zambrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Bełchatów

1.71

Olimpia Zambrów

1.29

Bełchatów creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

1.82

creates per match

1.14

1.45

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bełchatów

1.82

Olimpia Zambrów

1.14

allows per match

Bełchatów

1.45

Olimpia Zambrów

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw

71%

Bełchatów or Olimpia Zambrów

76%

Draw or Olimpia Zambrów

53%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+

25%

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals

82%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

51%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

24%

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

72%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

37%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

62%

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bełchatów scores more

47%

level

24%

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

29%

Bełchatów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff