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Olimpia Zambrów vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
11/5/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów40%
×Draw24%
Błonianka Błonie37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.63
Błonianka Błonie
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
63%
Olimpia Zambrów or Błonianka Błonie
76%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
60%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
20%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
80%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
48%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
22%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
79%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
46%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
52%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
40%
level
24%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
37%

Olimpia Zambrów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Zambrów 0–3 Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Olimpia Zambrów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.