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Błonianka Błonie vs Olimpia Zambrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
6/3/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Błonianka Błonie42%
×Draw24%
Olimpia Zambrów35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.66
Olimpia Zambrów
1.50

Błonianka Błonie creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 49 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Olimpia Zambrów
1.14

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Olimpia Zambrów
1.59

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
65%
Błonianka Błonie or Olimpia Zambrów
76%
Draw or Olimpia Zambrów
58%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
21%
Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
81%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
49%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
23%
Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
78%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
44%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
54%
Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
42%
level
24%
Olimpia Zambrów scores more
35%

Błonianka Błonie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Błonianka Błonie 1–1 Olimpia Zambrów

Błonianka Błonie and Olimpia Zambrów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.