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Olimpia vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2025

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
A. Alcaraz 61'
2/25/2026Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 7Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Olimpia40%
×Draw27%
Libertad Asuncion33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.31
Libertad Asuncion
1.18

Olimpia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Olimpia
1.62
Libertad Asuncion
1.45

allows per match

Olimpia
0.90
Libertad Asuncion
1.00

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
67%
Olimpia or Libertad Asuncion
73%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
60%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
18%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
73%
Olimpia 2+ goals
38%
Olimpia 3+ goals
14%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
69%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
33%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
54%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.62 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.45 + Olimpia defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia scores more
40%
level
27%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
33%

Olimpia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
B. BentaberryOlimpiaOlimpia · D
8.3

Match Events

39'
Juan Fernando AlfaroPenalty cancelled
46'
H. Quintana← T. I. Caballero Fleytas
53'
Richard OrtizGoal cancelled
61'
H. Martinez← P. Villalba
61'
A. Alcaraz
64'
Hugo Martínez
65'
Hernesto Caballero
68'
Adrián Alcaraz
72'
A. Molinas← J. Recalde
72'
G. Aguilar← H. Caballero
75'
F. Cardozo← F. Alfonso
76'
F. Carrizo← M. D. Espinoza Acosta
76'
E. Diaz← A. Fretes
83'
A. F. Franco Zayas← E. Delmas
89'
R. Perez← J. F. Alfaro
90+1'
Alex Franco
90'
H. Sandoval← A. Alcaraz

Possession

55%Olimpia

Shots

14Olimpia

Pass accuracy

51%Olimpia

Statistics

OlimpiaLibertad
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots11
3Corners3
7Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots11
4On Target5
5Off Target4
5Blocked2
8Inside Box9
6Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
446Total Passes366
357Accurate Passes282
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Division Profesional - Apertura: Olimpia 1–0 Libertad Asuncion

Olimpia beat Libertad Asuncion 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 25, 2026.

Goals: A. Alcaraz (61').

Olimpia controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb in Asuncion.