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Olimpia vs Libertad Asuncion — League #252 2026

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
8/17/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 8Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olimpia31%
×Draw29%
Libertad Asuncion40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.03
Libertad Asuncion
1.20

Libertad Asuncion creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olimpia
0.67
Libertad Asuncion
1.40

allows per match

Olimpia
1.00
Libertad Asuncion
1.40

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
60%
Olimpia or Libertad Asuncion
71%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
69%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
12%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
64%
Olimpia 2+ goals
28%
Olimpia 3+ goals
9%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
70%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
34%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
44%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 0.67 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.40 + Olimpia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia scores more
31%
level
29%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
40%

Libertad Asuncion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
H. QuintanaOlimpiaOlimpia · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
Richard Ortiz
22'
Lucas Morales
42'
Néstor Giménez
46'
R. Villalba← J. Bogarin
50'
Ángel Cardozo Lucena
58'
L. Abreu← D. Gonzalez
59'
R. Redes← T. I. Caballero Fleytas
63'
H. Martinez← J. Recalde
63'
G. Aguilar← C. R. Santa
66'
Rodrigo Villalba
69'
I. Leguizamon← R. Ortiz
78'
I. Franco← A. Cardozo Lucena
78'
O. Cardozo← M. Fernandez
80'
A. F. Franco Zayas← H. Quintana

Possession

59%Olimpia

Shots

14Olimpia

Pass accuracy

52%Olimpia

Statistics

OlimpiaLibertad
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots17
1.20Expected Goals (xG)1.58
7Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots17
3On Target5
9Off Target8
2Blocked4
9Inside Box12
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
397Total Passes274
308Accurate Passes195
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
5Offsides1

League #252: Olimpia 0–0 Libertad Asuncion

Olimpia and Libertad Asuncion drew 0-0 in League #252 on August 17, 2025.

Olimpia controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb in Asuncion.