Olimpia vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
Olimpia51%
LDU de Quito23%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Olimpia creates 63% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Olimpia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Olimpia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches
LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Olimpia attack 1.54 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56
LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Olimpia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Olimpia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Flamengo
PalmeirasLDU de Quito
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente Medellin
Cerro Porteno
Deportes Tolima
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
U. Catolica
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
Sporting Cristal
Coquimbo Unido
Racing Club
Platense
Barcelona SC
Carabobo FC
UCV
Lanus
Juventud
Fluminense
Santa Fe
Club Nacional
Boca Juniors
Botafogo
Universitario
2 de Mayo
Deportivo Tachira FC
O'Higgins
Penarol
Bolívar
Velez Sarsfield
Junior
Universidad Catolica
Bahia
The Strongest
Argentinos JRS
Nacional Potosí
Always Ready
Deportivo La Guaira
Atletico Nacional
River Plate
Sao Paulo
Libertad Asuncion
Club Guarani
Liverpool Montevideo
Alianza Lima
Fortaleza EC
Cusco
Huachipato
InternacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Olimpia host LDU de Quito on Wednesday, 31 July 2019 at 00:30. The match is part of the CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Olimpia vs LDU de Quito
Olimpia and LDU de Quito drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on July 31, 2019.
Goals: J. Julio (20'), W. Mendieta (35').
The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción).