LDU de Quito 3–1 Olimpia: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia

Rodrigo Aguirre 85'

Jhojan Julio 73'

José Ayoví 12'

Rodrigo Rojas 61'

7/24/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

LDU de Quito61%

×Draw21%

Olimpia18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.99

LDU de Quito

2.04

Olimpia

0.99

LDU de Quito creates 106% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

2.29

creates per match

1.24

0.75

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Olimpia

1.24

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Olimpia

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

82%

LDU de Quito or Olimpia

79%

Draw or Olimpia

39%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

38%

Olimpia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

87%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

60%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

33%

Olimpia 1+ goals

63%

Olimpia 2+ goals

26%

Olimpia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

78%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Olimpia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Olimpia attack 1.24 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

61%

level

21%

Olimpia scores more

18%

LDU de Quito at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Rodrigo Aguirre

LDU de Quito · F

8.3

Match Events

6'

Antonio Valencia

12'

José Ayoví↳ Jefferson Orejuela

18'

Antolín Alcaraz

28'

Néstor Camacho

60'

Maximiliano Olivera← Néstor Camacho

61'

Rodrigo Rojas↳ Iván Torres

66'

Luis Chicaiza← José Ayoví

73'

Jhojan Julio↳ Anderson Julio

80'

Luis Caicedo

84'

Luis De la Cruz← Iván Torres

85'

Rodrigo Aguirre↳ Antonio Valencia

88'

Luis Ayala← Christian Cruz

88'

Jorge Ortega← Roque Santa Cruz

90'

Rodrigo Rojas

90'

Edison Vega← Jefferson Orejuela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUOlimpia

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots7

4Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots7

5On Target3

10Off Target2

2Blocked2

10Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

344Total Passes361

287Accurate Passes296

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0