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Olímpia vs Inter de Bebedouro — Paulista Série B 2026

Olímpia
Olímpia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
Wellington 90+1' (pen)
d. S. Maicon V. 16'
5/26/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olímpia13%
×Draw23%
Inter de Bebedouro64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpia
0.64
Inter de Bebedouro
1.75

Inter de Bebedouro creates 173% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olímpia
0.67
Inter de Bebedouro
1.60

allows per match

Olímpia
1.89
Inter de Bebedouro
0.60

finishing

Olímpia+0.00on par
Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpia ↓

Inter de Bebedouro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–116%
0–214%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olímpia or draw
36%
Olímpia or Inter de Bebedouro
77%
Draw or Inter de Bebedouro
87%

Winning margin

Olímpia wins by 2+
3%
Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Olímpia 1+ goals
47%
Olímpia 2+ goals
14%
Olímpia 3+ goals
3%
Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
83%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
52%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Olímpia (draw refunded)
17%
Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Inter de Bebedouro away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpia attack 0.67 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.60 + Olímpia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Olímpia scores more
13%
level
23%
Inter de Bebedouro scores more
64%

Inter de Bebedouro at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
d. S. Maicon V.
90+1'
WellingtonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Olímpia 0–2 Inter de Bebedouro

Inter de Bebedouro beat Olímpia 2-0 in Paulista Série B on May 26, 2024.

Goals: d. S. Maicon V. (16'), Wellington (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda in Olímpia, São Paulo.