Inter de Bebedouro 2–1 Olímpia: Result & Stats

Inter de Bebedouro

FT

2 – 1

Olímpia

4/20/2024

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro54%

×Draw24%

Olímpia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter de BebedouroExpected goals in this matchOlímpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.00

Inter de Bebedouro

1.72

Olímpia

1.00

Inter de Bebedouro creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.10

creates per match

0.89

1.10

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro

1.10

Olímpia

0.89

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro

1.10

Olímpia

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

Olímpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro ↓

Olímpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro or draw

78%

Inter de Bebedouro or Olímpia

76%

Draw or Olímpia

46%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+

30%

Olímpia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals

82%

Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals

51%

Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals

25%

Olímpia 1+ goals

63%

Olímpia 2+ goals

26%

Olímpia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)

71%

Olímpia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Olímpia away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.10 + Olímpia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Olímpia attack 0.89 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Inter de Bebedouro scores more

54%

level

24%

Olímpia scores more

22%

Inter de Bebedouro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Inter de Bebedouro 2–1 Olímpia

Inter de Bebedouro beat Olímpia 2-1 in Paulista Série B on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Sócrates Stamato in Bebedouro, São Paulo.

Inter de Bebedouro vs Olímpia — Paulista Série B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Paulista Série B: Inter de Bebedouro 2–1 Olímpia