Olimpia 2–1 General Diaz: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

General Diaz

1/19/2020

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olimpia61%

×Draw20%

General Diaz18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Diaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.08

Olimpia

2.13

General Diaz

1.08

Olimpia creates 97% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 33 away

1.99

creates per match

1.12

1.05

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Olimpia

1.99

General Diaz

1.12

allows per match

Olimpia

1.05

General Diaz

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

General Diaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

82%

Olimpia or General Diaz

80%

Draw or General Diaz

39%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

38%

General Diaz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

88%

Olimpia 2+ goals

63%

Olimpia 3+ goals

35%

General Diaz 1+ goals

66%

General Diaz 2+ goals

29%

General Diaz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

77%

General Diaz (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

General Diaz away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.99 + General Diaz defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

General Diaz attack 1.12 + Olimpia defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Olimpia scores more

61%

level

20%

General Diaz scores more

18%

Olimpia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff