General Diaz 0–2 Olimpia: Result & Stats

General Diaz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olimpia

3/2/2019

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 9Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

General Diaz22%

×Draw24%

Olimpia53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General DiazExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.67

General Diaz

0.98

Olimpia

1.67

Olimpia creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 97 away

1.00

creates per match

1.76

1.58

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

General Diaz

1.00

Olimpia

1.76

allows per match

General Diaz

1.58

Olimpia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw

47%

General Diaz or Olimpia

76%

Draw or Olimpia

78%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+

8%

Olimpia wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals

62%

General Diaz 2+ goals

26%

General Diaz 3+ goals

8%

Olimpia 1+ goals

81%

Olimpia 2+ goals

50%

Olimpia 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)

29%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Olimpia attack 1.76 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

General Diaz scores more

22%

level

24%

Olimpia scores more

53%

Olimpia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff