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Olimpia vs Barracas Central — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
4/16/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olimpia77%
×Draw19%
Barracas Central4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.83
Barracas Central
0.25

Olimpia creates 632% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Olimpia
2.00
Barracas Central
0.00

allows per match

Olimpia
0.50
Barracas Central
1.67

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
96%
Olimpia or Barracas Central
81%
Draw or Barracas Central
23%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
48%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
84%
Olimpia 2+ goals
54%
Olimpia 3+ goals
28%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
22%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
3%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
95%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 2.00 + Barracas Central defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Barracas Central attack 0.00 + Olimpia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Olimpia scores more
77%
level
19%
Barracas Central scores more
4%

Olimpia at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
R. SanchezOlimpiaOlimpia · M
7.9

Match Events

-5'
Alejandro Silva
10'
Dardo Miloc
16'
Juan Fernando Alfaro
45'
Richard Ortiz
46'
H. Quintana← R. Lezcano
50'
Rodrigo Insúa
54'
Nicolas Capraro
58'
J. Candia← F. Bruera
64'
Romeo Benítez
65'
I. Leguizamon← R. Ortiz
65'
G. Morales← N. Briasco
66'
I. A. Guaraz← I. Tapia
73'
S. Ferreira← A. Alcaraz
73'
E. Delmas← R. Benitez
75'
Damián Martínez
77'
Ivan Leguizamon
80'
H. Sandoval← A. F. Rodriguez Armoa
83'
K. Jappert← D. Martinez
86'
Hugo Sandoval

Possession

67%Olimpia

Shots

12Olimpia

Pass accuracy

58%Olimpia

Statistics

OlimpiaBarracas
Overview
67%Possession33%
12Total Shots6
0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.29
5Corners1
11Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots6
4On Target2
6Off Target4
2Blocked1
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
67%Possession33%
450Total Passes219
374Accurate Passes130
83%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.65Goals Prevented0.65
Discipline
11Fouls12
6Yellow Cards4
6Offsides1

Match Recap: Olimpia vs Barracas Central

Olimpia and Barracas Central drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 16, 2026.

Olimpia controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco.