Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barracas Central vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Barracas Central
Barracas Central
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olimpia
Olimpia
G. Morales 9'
A. F. Franco Zayas 90'
F. Cardozo 34'
5/7/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Florencio Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barracas Central33%
×Draw31%
Olimpia36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barracas Central
0.94
Olimpia
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Barracas Central
0.67
Olimpia
1.00

allows per match

Barracas Central
1.00
Olimpia
1.20

finishing

Barracas Central+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw
64%
Barracas Central or Olimpia
69%
Draw or Olimpia
67%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+
12%
Olimpia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals
61%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
24%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
7%
Olimpia 1+ goals
63%
Olimpia 2+ goals
26%
Olimpia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)
48%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 0.67 + Olimpia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Olimpia attack 1.00 + Barracas Central defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barracas Central scores more
33%
level
31%
Olimpia scores more
36%

Olimpia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. EspinolaBarracas CentralBarracas Central · G
9.2

Match Events

9'
G. Morales↳ I. Tapia
17'
Nicolas Capraro
27'
Brayan Bentaberry
32'
Romeo Benítez
34'
F. Cardozo↳ E. Delmas
35'
Fernando Tobio
35'
Fernando Cardozo
38'
Jhonatan Candia
45+3'
Damián Martínez
45+3'
Richard Ortiz
46'
D. Miloc← D. Martinez
51'
A. Silva← R. Ortiz
60'
Alejandro Silva
65'
F. Bruera← G. Morales
65'
K. Jappert← N. Capraro
65'
E. Taborda← J. Candia
69'
R. Lezcano← E. Delmas
69'
T. I. Caballero Fleytas← A. Alcaraz
72'
G. Maroni← R. Bogarin
82'
A. F. Franco Zayas← F. Cardozo
82'
I. Leguizamon← R. Benitez
90+5'
Nicolás Demartini
90+5'
Nicolás DemartiniCard upgrade
90'
A. F. Franco Zayas↳ I. Leguizamon

Possession

33%Barracas

Shots

19Barracas

Pass accuracy

45%Barracas

Statistics

BarracasOlimpia
Overview
33%Possession67%
19Total Shots21
1.19Expected Goals (xG)2.54
3Corners5
14Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots21
6On Target10
10Off Target9
3Blocked2
11Inside Box15
8Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
251Total Passes507
181Accurate Passes440
72%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
8Saves5
-0.07Goals Prevented-0.07
Discipline
14Fouls10
4Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Barracas Central vs Olimpia

Olimpia beat Barracas Central 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 7, 2026.

Goals: G. Morales (9'), F. Cardozo (34'), A. F. Franco Zayas (90').

Olimpia controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Sola in Buenos Aires.