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Olímpia vs AEA — Paulista Série B 2026

Olímpia
Olímpia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AEA
AEA
6/9/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olímpia19%
×Draw28%
AEA52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpia
0.69
AEA
1.34

AEA creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olímpia
0.67
AEA
0.80

allows per match

Olímpia
1.89
AEA
0.70

finishing

Olímpia+0.00on par
AEA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpia ↓

AEA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olímpia or draw
48%
Olímpia or AEA
72%
Draw or AEA
81%

Winning margin

Olímpia wins by 2+
5%
AEA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Olímpia 1+ goals
50%
Olímpia 2+ goals
15%
Olímpia 3+ goals
3%
AEA 1+ goals
74%
AEA 2+ goals
39%
AEA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olímpia (draw refunded)
27%
AEA (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

AEA away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpia attack 0.67 + AEA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

AEA attack 0.80 + Olímpia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olímpia scores more
19%
level
28%
AEA scores more
52%

AEA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AEA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpia 0 – 0 AEA

Olímpia and AEA drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda in Olímpia, São Paulo.