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AEA vs Olímpia — Paulista Série B 2026

AEA
AEA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpia
Olímpia
5/4/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AEA63%
×Draw22%
Olímpia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEA
1.86
Olímpia
0.79

AEA creates 135% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

AEA
1.40
Olímpia
0.89

allows per match

AEA
0.70
Olímpia
2.33

finishing

AEA+0.00on par
Olímpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEA ↓

Olímpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AEA or draw
85%
AEA or Olímpia
78%
Draw or Olímpia
37%

Winning margin

AEA wins by 2+
37%
Olímpia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AEA 1+ goals
84%
AEA 2+ goals
55%
AEA 3+ goals
28%
Olímpia 1+ goals
55%
Olímpia 2+ goals
19%
Olímpia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AEA (draw refunded)
80%
Olímpia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Olímpia away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEA attack 1.40 + Olímpia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Olímpia attack 0.89 + AEA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AEA scores more
63%
level
22%
Olímpia scores more
15%

AEA at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AEA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AEA 0 – 0 Olímpia

AEA and Olímpia drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros in Araçatuba, São Paulo.