Olimpia Grudziądz 3–0 Olimpia Elbląg

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Olimpia Elbląg

3/6/2024

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz44%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Elbląg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.44

Olimpia Elbląg

1.14

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 102 away

1.45

creates per match

0.94

1.34

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Olimpia Elbląg

0.94

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Olimpia Elbląg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

70%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Olimpia Elbląg

74%

Draw or Olimpia Elbląg

56%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

21%

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

76%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

42%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

18%

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

68%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

32%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

59%

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

44%

level

26%

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

30%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff