Olimpia Elbląg 1–0 Olimpia Grudziądz

Olimpia Elbląg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

8/5/2023

II Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg41%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ElblągExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Olimpia Elbląg

1.39

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.23

Olimpia Elbląg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

1.20

creates per match

1.26

1.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.20

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.20

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw

67%

Olimpia Elbląg or Olimpia Grudziądz

74%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

59%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

19%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

75%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

40%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

16%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

71%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

35%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

55%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

41%

level

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

33%

Olimpia Elbląg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff