Olimpia Grudziądz 1–3 Lech Poznań II

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lech Poznań II

4/10/2021

II Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz43%

×Draw25%

Lech Poznań II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchLech Poznań II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.50

Lech Poznań II

1.24

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 86 away

1.45

creates per match

1.14

1.34

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Lech Poznań II

1.14

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Lech Poznań II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Lech Poznań II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

69%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Lech Poznań II

75%

Draw or Lech Poznań II

57%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

21%

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

78%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

44%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

19%

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

71%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

35%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

58%

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

43%

level

25%

Lech Poznań II scores more

31%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff