Lech Poznań II 0–0 Olimpia Grudziądz

Lech Poznań II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

2/24/2024

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lech Poznań II39%

×Draw25%

Olimpia Grudziądz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.38

Lech Poznań II

1.47

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 69 away

1.35

creates per match

1.26

1.49

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

1.35

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.49

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

65%

Lech Poznań II or Olimpia Grudziądz

75%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

61%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

19%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

77%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

43%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

18%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

75%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

40%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

53%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

39%

level

25%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

35%

Lech Poznań II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff