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Olimpia Grudziądz vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
3/10/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz36%
×Draw26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.34
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 87 away

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.45
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.34
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw
61%
Olimpia Grudziądz or Chojniczanka Chojnice
74%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
64%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
16%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
74%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
39%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
15%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
75%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
41%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
48%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
36%
level
26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
39%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Olimpia Grudziądz 1-0 in II Liga - East on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego in Grudziądz.