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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
5/3/2026II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 30Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice52%
×Draw24%
Olimpia Grudziądz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.75
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.13

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 55% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.26

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.58

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
75%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Olimpia Grudziądz
76%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
48%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
28%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
83%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
52%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
25%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
68%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
31%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
68%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
52%
level
24%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–2 Olimpia Grudziądz

Chojniczanka Chojnice and Olimpia Grudziądz drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930 in Chojnice.