Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olimpia Elbląg vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
7/19/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg52%
×Draw24%
Legionovia Legionowo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.75
Legionovia Legionowo
1.13

Olimpia Elbląg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
75%
Olimpia Elbląg or Legionovia Legionowo
76%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
48%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
28%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
83%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
52%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
25%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
68%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
31%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
68%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
52%
level
24%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
25%

Olimpia Elbląg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Elbląg vs Legionovia Legionowo

Olimpia Elbląg beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-1 in II Liga - East on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.