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Legionovia Legionowo vs Olimpia Elbląg — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
11/2/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo35%
×Draw28%
Olimpia Elbląg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.16
Olimpia Elbląg
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Olimpia Elbląg
0.94

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Olimpia Elbląg
1.44

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
63%
Legionovia Legionowo or Olimpia Elbląg
72%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
65%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
14%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
69%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
32%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
11%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
70%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
34%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
48%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
35%
level
28%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
37%

Olimpia Elbląg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Olimpia Elbląg

Legionovia Legionowo and Olimpia Elbląg drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.