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Olimpia Elbląg vs Lech Poznań II — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
4/1/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 25Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg42%
×Draw27%
Lech Poznań II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.38
Lech Poznań II
1.17

Olimpia Elbląg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 86 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Lech Poznań II
1.14

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Lech Poznań II
1.55

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Lech Poznań II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
68%
Olimpia Elbląg or Lech Poznań II
73%
Draw or Lech Poznań II
58%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
19%
Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
75%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
40%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
16%
Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
69%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
33%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
57%
Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
42%
level
27%
Lech Poznań II scores more
32%

Olimpia Elbląg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Elbląg vs Lech Poznań II

Lech Poznań II beat Olimpia Elbląg 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.