Lech Poznań II 2–1 Olimpia Elbląg: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Olimpia Elbląg

2/28/2024

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Lech Poznań II41%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Elbląg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.21

Lech Poznań II

1.40

Olimpia Elbląg

1.21

Lech Poznań II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 102 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

1.49

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

1.35

Olimpia Elbląg

0.94

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.49

Olimpia Elbląg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

68%

Lech Poznań II or Olimpia Elbląg

74%

Draw or Olimpia Elbląg

59%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

19%

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

75%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

41%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

17%

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

70%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

34%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

56%

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

41%

level

26%

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

32%

Lech Poznań II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff