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Olimpia Elbląg vs Jastrzębie — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
9/2/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg44%
×Draw27%
Jastrzębie29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.41
Jastrzębie
1.09

Olimpia Elbląg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 63 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Jastrzębie
0.98

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Jastrzębie
1.62

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
71%
Olimpia Elbląg or Jastrzębie
73%
Draw or Jastrzębie
56%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
21%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
76%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
41%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
17%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
66%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
30%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
60%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
44%
level
27%
Jastrzębie scores more
29%

Olimpia Elbląg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Elbląg vs Jastrzębie

Olimpia Elbląg beat Jastrzębie 2-1 in II Liga - East on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.