Jastrzębie 1–2 Olimpia Elbląg: Result & Stats

Jastrzębie

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olimpia Elbląg

3/17/2024

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jastrzębie42%

×Draw27%

Olimpia Elbląg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JastrzębieExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.09

Jastrzębie

1.31

Olimpia Elbląg

1.09

Jastrzębie creates 20% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 102 away

1.19

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Jastrzębie

1.19

Olimpia Elbląg

0.94

allows per match

Jastrzębie

1.25

Olimpia Elbląg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw

69%

Jastrzębie or Olimpia Elbląg

73%

Draw or Olimpia Elbląg

58%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

19%

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

73%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

38%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

14%

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

66%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

30%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

57%

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jastrzębie scores more

42%

level

27%

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

31%

Jastrzębie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff