Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olimpia Elbląg vs Elana Toruń — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
11/30/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg44%
×Draw27%
Elana Toruń29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.40
Elana Toruń
1.07

Olimpia Elbląg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Elana Toruń
0.94

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Elana Toruń
1.59

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Elana Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
71%
Olimpia Elbląg or Elana Toruń
73%
Draw or Elana Toruń
56%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
21%
Elana Toruń wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
75%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
41%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
17%
Elana Toruń 1+ goals
66%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
29%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
61%
Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Elana Toruń attack 0.94 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
44%
level
27%
Elana Toruń scores more
29%

Olimpia Elbląg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 0–2 Elana Toruń

Elana Toruń beat Olimpia Elbląg 2-0 in II Liga - East on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.