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Elana Toruń vs Olimpia Elbląg — II Liga - East 2019

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
8/10/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń48%
×Draw24%
Olimpia Elbląg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
1.72
Olimpia Elbląg
1.27

Elana Toruń creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
2.00
Olimpia Elbląg
0.94

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.59
Olimpia Elbląg
1.44

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
72%
Elana Toruń or Olimpia Elbląg
76%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
52%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
26%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
82%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
51%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
25%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
72%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
36%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
63%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 2.00 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
48%
level
24%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
28%

Elana Toruń at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Elana Toruń 0–2 Olimpia Elbląg

Olimpia Elbląg beat Elana Toruń 2-0 in II Liga - East on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.