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Olimpia Elbląg vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
3/17/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg45%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.53
Bytovia Bytów
1.19

Olimpia Elbląg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.20
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
70%
Olimpia Elbląg or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
55%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
23%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
78%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
45%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
20%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
70%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
33%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
60%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
45%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
30%

Olimpia Elbląg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Olimpia Elbląg 0–1 Bytovia Bytów

Bytovia Bytów beat Olimpia Elbląg 1-0 in II Liga - East on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elbląg.