Bytovia Bytów 1–0 Olimpia Elbląg: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpia Elbląg

6/21/2020

II Liga - East · Round 27Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów45%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Elbląg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Bytovia Bytów

1.50

Olimpia Elbląg

1.16

Bytovia Bytów creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.37

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.57

Olimpia Elbląg

0.94

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.37

Olimpia Elbląg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

71%

Bytovia Bytów or Olimpia Elbląg

74%

Draw or Olimpia Elbląg

55%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

22%

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

78%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

44%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

19%

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

69%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

32%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

61%

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

45%

level

26%

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

29%

Bytovia Bytów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff