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Olimpia Cluj W vs Vasas Femina W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
FT
5 – 0
Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
11/17/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 12Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W79%
×Draw12%
Vasas Femina W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Cluj W
3.48
Vasas Femina W
1.18

Olimpia Cluj W creates 195% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 58 away

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W
3.72
Vasas Femina W
1.34

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W
1.01
Vasas Femina W
3.24

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par
Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Vasas Femina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw
91%
Olimpia Cluj W or Vasas Femina W
88%
Draw or Vasas Femina W
21%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
61%
Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
97%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
85%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
65%
Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
69%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
33%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
89%
Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.72 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 3.48

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more
79%
level
12%
Vasas Femina W scores more
9%

Olimpia Cluj W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Olimpia Cluj W 5–0 Vasas Femina W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Vasas Femina W 5-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod in Iclod.