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Olimpia Cluj W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
FT
1 – 1
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
3/6/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 1Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W52%
×Draw19%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Cluj W
2.56
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
1.92

Olimpia Cluj W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 22 away

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W
3.72
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.82

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W
1.01
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
1.41

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw
71%
Olimpia Cluj W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
81%
Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
48%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
32%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
92%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
72%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
46%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
85%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
57%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
64%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.72 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.56

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more
52%
level
19%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
29%

Olimpia Cluj W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Cluj W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Olimpia Cluj W and Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W drew 1-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod in Iclod.