Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1–1 Olimpia Cluj W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

FT

1 – 1

Olimpia Cluj W

4/30/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W50%

×Draw19%

Olimpia Cluj W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului WExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Cluj W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

2.04

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

2.58

Olimpia Cluj W

2.04

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 70 away

4.00

creates per match

3.27

0.80

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

4.00

Olimpia Cluj W

3.27

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

0.80

Olimpia Cluj W

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw

69%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or Olimpia Cluj W

81%

Draw or Olimpia Cluj W

50%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

31%

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

92%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

72%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

47%

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals

87%

Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals

60%

Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

61%

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 2.58

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

50%

level

19%

Olimpia Cluj W scores more

31%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff