Olimpia Cluj W 0–4 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Olimpia Cluj W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

5/17/2025

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 11Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W60%

×Draw19%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia Cluj WExpected goals in this matchGloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.46

Olimpia Cluj W

2.54

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

1.46

Olimpia Cluj W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 39 away

3.72

creates per match

1.92

1.01

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W

3.72

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

1.92

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W

1.01

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw

79%

Olimpia Cluj W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

81%

Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

40%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+

39%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals

92%

Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals

72%

Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals

46%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals

77%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals

43%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)

74%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.72 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.54

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more

60%

level

19%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more

21%

Olimpia Cluj W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff