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Olimpia Cluj W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
FT
3 – 1
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
5/26/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 9Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W55%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Cluj W
2.41
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.60

Olimpia Cluj W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 11 away

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W
3.72
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W
1.01
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw
75%
Olimpia Cluj W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
80%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
45%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
35%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
91%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
69%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
43%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
47%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
69%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.72 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.41

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more
55%
level
20%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
25%

Olimpia Cluj W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Cluj W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Comunal Arena Iclod in Iclod.