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Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W vs Olimpia Cluj W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
FT
1 – 2
Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
4/25/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 4Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W36%
×Draw19%
Olimpia Cluj W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.43
Olimpia Cluj W
2.69

Olimpia Cluj W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 70 away

creates per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
3.70
Olimpia Cluj W
3.27

allows per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.10
Olimpia Cluj W
1.16

finishing

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par
Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or draw
55%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or Olimpia Cluj W
81%
Draw or Olimpia Cluj W
64%

Winning margin

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
21%
Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
69%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
43%
Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
93%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
74%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
45%
Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at home — creates 3.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 3.70 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 2.43

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
36%
level
19%
Olimpia Cluj W scores more
45%

Olimpia Cluj W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W vs Olimpia Cluj W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal in Becicherecu Mic.