Olimpia Cluj W 4–1 Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

Olimpia Cluj W

FT

4 – 1

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

9/15/2024

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Clujana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W78%

×Draw12%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia Cluj WExpected goals in this matchAtletic Olimpia Gherla W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.59

1.31

Olimpia Cluj W

3.59

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

1.31

Olimpia Cluj W creates 174% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 26 away

3.72

creates per match

1.62

1.01

allows per match

3.46

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W

3.72

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

1.62

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W

1.01

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

3.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw

90%

Olimpia Cluj W or Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

88%

Draw or Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

22%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+

60%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals

97%

Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals

86%

Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals

67%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 1+ goals

73%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 2+ goals

38%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)

88%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.72 + Atletic Olimpia Gherla W defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 3.59

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W attack 1.62 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more

78%

level

12%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W scores more

10%

Olimpia Cluj W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff