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Atletic Olimpia Gherla W vs Olimpia Cluj W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
11/9/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 11Stadionul Olimpia Gherla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W19%
×Draw17%
Olimpia Cluj W64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
1.48
Olimpia Cluj W
2.79

Olimpia Cluj W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

creates per match

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
1.81
Olimpia Cluj W
3.27

allows per match

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
2.31
Olimpia Cluj W
1.16

finishing

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W+0.00on par
Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W or draw
36%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W or Olimpia Cluj W
83%
Draw or Olimpia Cluj W
81%

Winning margin

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W wins by 2+
8%
Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 1+ goals
77%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 2+ goals
43%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 3+ goals
19%
Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
94%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
76%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W (draw refunded)
23%
Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W attack 1.81 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + Atletic Olimpia Gherla W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W scores more
19%
level
17%
Olimpia Cluj W scores more
64%

Olimpia Cluj W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletic Olimpia Gherla W vs Olimpia Cluj W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 6-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Olimpia Gherla in Gherla.