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Olimp Comrat vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport — League #395 2026

Olimp Comrat
Olimp Comrat
FT
0 – 2
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
11/4/2023League #395League #395 · Round 10Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimp Comrat39%
×Draw25%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimp Comrat
1.44
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olimp Comrat
1.88
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.40

allows per match

Olimp Comrat
1.38
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.00

finishing

Olimp Comrat+0.00on par
Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimp Comrat ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olimp Comrat or draw
64%
Olimp Comrat or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
75%
Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
61%

Winning margin

Olimp Comrat wins by 2+
18%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olimp Comrat 1+ goals
76%
Olimp Comrat 2+ goals
42%
Olimp Comrat 3+ goals
18%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
75%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
40%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Olimp Comrat (draw refunded)
52%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimp Comrat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimp Comrat attack 1.88 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.40 + Olimp Comrat defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimp Comrat scores more
39%
level
25%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
36%

Olimp Comrat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimp Comrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Olimp Comrat 0–2 Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Gagauziya-Oguzsport beat Olimp Comrat 2-0 in League #395 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.