Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs Olimp Comrat — League #395 2026

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FT
4 – 2
Olimp Comrat
Olimp Comrat
12/16/2023League #395League #395 · Round 15Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport54%
×Draw22%
Olimp Comrat23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.93
Olimp Comrat
1.19

Gagauziya-Oguzsport creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Olimp Comrat
1.14

allows per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.25
Olimp Comrat
1.86

finishing

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par
Olimp Comrat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagauziya-Oguzsport ↓

Olimp Comrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or draw
77%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport or Olimp Comrat
78%
Draw or Olimp Comrat
46%

Winning margin

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
32%
Olimp Comrat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
85%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
57%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
30%
Olimp Comrat 1+ goals
70%
Olimp Comrat 2+ goals
33%
Olimp Comrat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
70%
Olimp Comrat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Olimp Comrat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 2.00 + Olimp Comrat defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Olimp Comrat attack 1.14 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
54%
level
22%
Olimp Comrat scores more
23%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Gagauziya-Oguzsport 4–2 Olimp Comrat

Gagauziya-Oguzsport beat Olimp Comrat 4-2 in League #395 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.