Oleksandria 1–0 Kryvbas KR: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kryvbas KR

4/6/2025

Premier League · Round 23CSC Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Oleksandria32%

×Draw27%

Kryvbas KR41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchKryvbas KR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.36

Oleksandria

1.17

Kryvbas KR

1.36

Kryvbas KR creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

0.86

creates per match

0.94

1.79

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Oleksandria

0.86

Kryvbas KR

0.94

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.79

Kryvbas KR

1.47

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Oleksandria-0.11scores less

Kryvbas KR+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Kryvbas KR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

59%

Oleksandria or Kryvbas KR

73%

Draw or Kryvbas KR

68%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

13%

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

69%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

33%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

11%

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals

74%

Kryvbas KR 2+ goals

39%

Kryvbas KR 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

44%

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 8 matches

Kryvbas KR away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 0.86 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kryvbas KR attack 0.94 + Oleksandria defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oleksandria scores more

32%

level

27%

Kryvbas KR scores more

41%

Kryvbas KR at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kryvbas KR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff