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Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2019

Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
12/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Kryvbas KR40%
×Draw25%
Oleksandria35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas KR
1.46
Oleksandria
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kryvbas KR
1.41
Oleksandria
0.90

allows per match

Kryvbas KR
1.81
Oleksandria
1.51

finishing

Kryvbas KR+0.84scores more
Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas KR ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kryvbas KR or draw
65%
Kryvbas KR or Oleksandria
75%
Draw or Oleksandria
60%

Winning margin

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
19%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
77%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
43%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
18%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
74%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
39%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
53%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas KR attack 1.41 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kryvbas KR scores more
40%
level
25%
Oleksandria scores more
35%

Kryvbas KR at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kryvbas KR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria

Kryvbas KR beat Oleksandria 2-1 in Premier League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Krivoj Rog.