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Oleksandria vs Hirnyk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
FT
3 – 1
Hirnyk
Hirnyk
8/12/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3KSK Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oleksandria65%
×Draw19%
Hirnyk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
2.19
Hirnyk
0.97

Oleksandria creates 126% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
2.12
Hirnyk
1.00

allows per match

Oleksandria
0.94
Hirnyk
2.25

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Hirnyk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Hirnyk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
84%
Oleksandria or Hirnyk
81%
Draw or Hirnyk
35%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
41%
Hirnyk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
89%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
64%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
37%
Hirnyk 1+ goals
62%
Hirnyk 2+ goals
25%
Hirnyk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
81%
Hirnyk (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Hirnyk away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 2.12 + Hirnyk defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hirnyk attack 1.00 + Oleksandria defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Oleksandria scores more
65%
level
19%
Hirnyk scores more
16%

Oleksandria at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oleksandria vs Hirnyk

Oleksandria beat Hirnyk 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at KSK Nika in Aleksandriya.