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Oleksandria U19 vs Metalist 1925 U19 — U19 League 2023

Oleksandria U19
Oleksandria U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Metalist 1925 U19
Metalist 1925 U19
8/15/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 3KSK Nika - Iskusstvennoe futbolnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oleksandria U1949%
×Draw22%
Metalist 1925 U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria U19
1.91
Metalist 1925 U19
1.42

Oleksandria U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Oleksandria U19
1.31
Metalist 1925 U19
1.37

allows per match

Oleksandria U19
1.47
Metalist 1925 U19
2.50

finishing

Oleksandria U19+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria U19 ↓

Metalist 1925 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Oleksandria U19 or draw
71%
Oleksandria U19 or Metalist 1925 U19
78%
Draw or Metalist 1925 U19
51%

Winning margin

Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+
27%
Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oleksandria U19 1+ goals
85%
Oleksandria U19 2+ goals
57%
Oleksandria U19 3+ goals
30%
Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals
76%
Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals
41%
Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Metalist 1925 U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.31 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.37 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oleksandria U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Metalist 1925 U19 scores more
29%

Oleksandria U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oleksandria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Oleksandria U19 0–2 Metalist 1925 U19

Metalist 1925 U19 beat Oleksandria U19 2-0 in U19 League on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at KSK Nika - Iskusstvennoe futbolnoe pole in Oleksandriia.