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Metalist 1925 U19 vs Oleksandria U19 — U19 League 2023

Metalist 1925 U19
Metalist 1925 U19
FT
0 – 2
Oleksandria U19
Oleksandria U19
11/17/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 17Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metalist 1925 U1944%
×Draw23%
Oleksandria U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 U19
1.71
Oleksandria U19
1.44

Metalist 1925 U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 U19
1.50
Oleksandria U19
1.40

allows per match

Metalist 1925 U19
1.47
Oleksandria U19
1.93

finishing

Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par
Oleksandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 U19 ↓

Oleksandria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 U19 or draw
67%
Metalist 1925 U19 or Oleksandria U19
77%
Draw or Oleksandria U19
56%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+
23%
Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals
82%
Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals
51%
Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals
24%
Oleksandria U19 1+ goals
76%
Oleksandria U19 2+ goals
42%
Oleksandria U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Oleksandria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.50 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.40 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metalist 1925 U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
Oleksandria U19 scores more
33%

Metalist 1925 U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metalist 1925 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Metalist 1925 U19 0–2 Oleksandria U19

Oleksandria U19 beat Metalist 1925 U19 2-0 in U19 League on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Kniazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.