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Oleiros vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oleiros
Oleiros
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
4/10/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 22Estádio Municipal de Oleiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Oleiros42%
×Draw29%
Benfica Castelo Branco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleiros
1.20
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.95

Oleiros creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oleiros
1.80
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.70

allows per match

Oleiros
1.20
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Oleiros+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleiros ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oleiros or draw
71%
Oleiros or Benfica Castelo Branco
71%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
58%

Winning margin

Oleiros wins by 2+
18%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oleiros 1+ goals
70%
Oleiros 2+ goals
34%
Oleiros 3+ goals
12%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
61%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
25%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oleiros (draw refunded)
59%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleiros at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleiros attack 1.80 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 0.70 + Oleiros defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oleiros scores more
42%
level
29%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
29%

Oleiros at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oleiros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Oleiros 1–0 Benfica Castelo Branco

Oleiros beat Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oleiros in Oleiros.